Name of the Case: The Islamic Republic of Pakistan v. Republic of India
Citation: PCA Case No. 2023-01 | Supplemental Award on the Competence of the Court
Tribunal: Prof. Sean D. Murphy (Chair), Prof. Wouter Buytaert, Prof. Jeffrey P. Minear, Judge Awn Shawkat Al-Khasawneh, Dr. Donald Blackmore
Date: 27.06.2025
In a decision that arguably reflects a very textual understanding of the international treaty law, The Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague rejected India’s position that the ongoing arbitration proceedings under the Indus Water Treaty should be considered suspended following its geo-political declaration dated. 23.04.2025 to hold the treaty ‘in abeyance’. The PCA held that it retains jurisdiction despite the fact that India has invoked concerns of national security and regional instability, which have been held by India to render the treaty dispute resolution process as untenable under the present political climate.
India’s position does not come from a place of denial with regards to the historical importance of the treaty, rather, from legitimate diplomatic signals of its dissatisfaction with Pakistan’s historical conduct, more specifically in the recent times, especially in light of repeated cross-border provocations by Pakistan. India’s use of the term ‘abeyance’ was done to reflect India’s view that treaty mechanisms must work within a framework of reciprocal good faith and geopolitical stability. The stance by the Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India was further underpinned by the argument that the participation in Arbitral Proceedings amidst grave security breaches by the other signatory party, entirely undermines the foundational assumptions of the treaty.
The tribunal however, indulged in a very narrow interpretation of Article XII(4) of the Indus Water Treaty and stated that the treaty remains binding unless expressly terminated by mutual consent. The PCA acknowledged India’s non-participation in the proceedings and limited filings post-April 2025, but it declined to accept India’s position that the prevailing regional situation and Pakistan’s alleged violations justified a pause of arbitration. Later in the supplemental award, the tribunal asserted that states cannot selectively retreat from international obligations, especially in matters as sensitive as shared natural resources, based on geopolitical events. It was further concluded by the tribunal that its jurisdiction had already crystallized in 2016 when the matter was taken up formally.
India’s position was also supported by its broader concerns with regards to the fragmentation of treaty bodies, especially looking at the simultaneously ongoing proceedings before a Neutral expert, formally appointed by the World Bank on 13.10.2022, under the provisions of the same treaty. India has historically maintained that the dual proceedings are procedurally irregular and prejudicial to coherent dispute resolution. The PCA however, held that it had the authority to proceed independently, effectively sidelining India’s legitimate procedural objections. While further reinforcing the dispute resolution clauses in the Indus Water Treaty, the tribunal concluded that both the Court of Arbitration and the Neutral Expert, appointed separately, retain full competence to proceed with their respective mandates.
While procedurally orthodox, this present award raises broader questions about the interaction between international geo-politics and rigidity in the interpretation of applicable treaties. This award also overlooks India’s nuanced position on national interest and bilateral equity and hence, can be looked at as an overtly formalistic view of treaty enforcement that does not adequately account for evolving and extremely sensitive regional dynamics or ground realities in South Asia.
While the decision by the PCA stands as a procedural reaffirmation of its own jurisdiction, it provides no relief or attention to India’s underlying concerns over misuse of treaty forums and neither to concerns related to India’s national security and public order. Moving ahead, India shall likely reassess its own strategic and legal framework in context of its position, with regards to its international obligations under the Indus Water Treaty, especially considering the presently politically charged climate within the nation leading to a threat to the public order within the nation.
